The first year after the Great Recession, 2010, marked the historical peak of college and university enrollment in the United States. In the decade since, a popular narrative has emerged that the value of a college degree is rapidly declining. As a new wave of well-capitalized educational technology companies arrived on the scene — including massive open online courses (MOOCs) — it became popular to prognosticate about the disruption of American higher education. Badges earned online would challenge and replace traditional diplomas. Renowned business theorist Clayton Christensen forecasted that half of all colleges may be in bankruptcy within 15 years. Others said the degree was “doomed.”
A revolution in credentialing appeared underway, with colleges’ core product — the traditional degree — about to be swept aside by digital substitutes and disruptive start-up companies. Even more recently, this narrative has been amplified by reports that certain blue-chip companies such as IBM, Apple, and a number of others no longer “require” degrees for certain positions.
Yet by many measures, the value of a traditional degree today is as strong as ever in the job market. Innovation in degree delivery is occurring, but it is often being led by traditional, incumbent institutions, often in partnership with technology firms.