Home News How 3 colleges are preparing for a ‘demographic pothole’ – UB

How 3 colleges are preparing for a ‘demographic pothole’ – UB

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High school graduates expected to peak at 4 million in 2025 before hitting a ‘demographic pothole’

College enrollment leaders have begun revamping their recruitment messages with experts predicting a significant decline in high school graduates beginning in 2025 and lasting more than a decade.

About 3.8 million students graduated from high school in 2019. That number should peak at 4 million in 2025 before hitting a “demographic pothole” and declining each year throughout the 2030s, according to the “Knocking at the College Door” report released by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education in December.

A drop in births during and following the Great Recession is a leading reason for expected drop, the commission says in its report.

Even as the graduating classes decline size, they will become more diverse, the commission says.

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